BabyBoomerBlog

What If the Singularity Does NOT Happen?

 

    What If the Singularity Does NOT Happen?

by	Vernor Vinge

 

It's 2045 and nerds in old-folks homes are wandering around, scratching their heads, and asking plaintively, "But ... but, where's the Singularity?" Science fiction writer Vernor Vinge--who originated the concept of the technological Singularity--doesn't think that will happen, but he explores three alternate scenarios, along with our "best hope for long-term survival"--self-sufficient, off-Earth settlements.

Here is the link to the article and lively discussion.

Originally presented at Long Now Foundation Seminars About Long Term Thinking, February 15, 2007. Published with permission on KurzweilAI.net March 14, 2007.

Scenario 1: A Return to MADness

Scenario 2: The Golden Age

Scenario 3: The Wheel of Time

Vinge's solution:

Of course, there is a way to gain experience and at the same time improve the chances for humanity's survival:

Self-sufficient, off-Earth settlements as humanity's best hope for long-term survival

The Golden Age was the scenario I liked best

There are trends in our era that tend to support this optimistic scenario:

 

• The plasticity of the human psyche (on time scales at least as short as one human generation). When people have hope, information, and communication, it's amazing how fast they start behaving with wisdom exceeding the elites.
• The Internet empowers such trends, even if we don't accelerate on into the Singularity. (My most recent book, Rainbows End, might be considered an illustration of this (depending on how one interprets the evidence of incipiently transhuman players :-) )

Raven

In his habitat,

Stewarts Point, California

Tsvi Bisk on Futurizing the Jews and the Killer App

Tsvi Bisk on Futurizing the Jews, The Killer App and

Blogtogenarian -  Never Too Old To Blog

One of the more interesting books I've been reading lately is called "Futurizing the Jews" by Tsvi Bisk.   Bisk  will be speaking at the World Future Society conference this summer in Minneapolis, and I wanted to read his book before he arrived.  Fortunately, his tome was available from Wilson Library, since it costs over 80 bucks not available from Hennepin County.  The book is heavy on Jewish content, probably not of much interest to my younger readers, but he has some amazing ideas about a Energy Project Blue Print for Action.  His idea for the Killer App (application) is Thermal Depolymerization, a way of getting energy from trash. 

Bisk doesn't have a blog, but does have a website, and writes for The Futurist.  His website has two articles called Energy Project for Action and Halting Islamic Terrorism that you should check out.

I wanted to link to this article before I leave on holiday, since it was first published at the beginning of the month.  Could this be the beginning of the Killer App?

Scientists develop portable generator that turns trash into electricity

Purdue professor Nathan Mosier works with the tactical biorefinery, which is designed to convert waste into electricity.

A group of scientists have created a portable refinery that efficiently converts food, paper and plastic trash into electricity. The machine, designed for the U.S. military, would allow soldiers in the field to convert waste into power and could have widespread civilian applications in the future.

 

Blogtogenarian is a new word to describe an octogenerian who blogs.  It was taken from an article in The Advocate that describes the blog of 82 year old New Yorker Robert Stein.  This quote from the article interested me:

"According to a 2005 study by Perseus, a Web survey firm, less than half a percent of an estimated 53.4 million bloggers are 50 and older."   

Gotta love being an anomaly.  Shaloha,  back in March.

Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0

Web 1.0  Web 2.0 and Web 3.0

I discovered the blog of Nova Spivack in fall 2003, while I was doing research for my first Innovation Studies class.  He wrote about the "Semantic Web," and I did not exactly understand what he meant.  Spivack is the grandson of the late Peter Drucker, the most brilliant business writer of our generation.  I was happy to see a important article in the September 12, 2006 New York Times about Spivack, and his company RADAR.

RADAR is developing the Semantic Web, also called Web 3.0 or  Web 2007. This is how I will explain it in a simple way.  Web 1.0 was the internet I first encountered at the Excelsior Library in the early 1990's, even before email. It had  text on a black background, no images, etc.  Chat rooms were in their infancy, only the really cool kids (not me) knew all about chat rooms like The WELL (Whole Earth 'Lectronic Links). All I knew about was the Todd Rundgren fan club.

Web 2.0 is what we are using today.  Every store has online shopping.  There are online magazines, blogs and chat boards on topics from A to Z.  Next generation applications abound, like Internet Social Networks, Online games, and You Tube.  You can get Really Simple Syndicated (RSS) feeds to notify you when a blog or news source is updated.  There are even really new applications, like Second Life, which is generating all the buzz.  Second Life is an interactive 3-D web environment, not a game, but a "second" place to "live." However, all of these are still Web 2.0.

Web 3.0, or as Spivack calls it, Web 2007 is an "overlay" that will use artificial intelligence to make sense of the catalogues of information now available online.  For example, if I want to buy a cashmere sweater online today, I would search ten stores online, decide which one I like and then make my purchase.  With the Semantic web, I would type in "I need a pink cashmere sweater, my size, for under $100, that can be delivered tommorrow with no shipping charges."  The artificial intelligence will search the Semantic Web and easily display the perfect item. 

This may seem redundant or overly materialistic, but here's a more pertinent example.  I am currently researching a topic that I'll be writing about soon.  I am interested in media analysis of current television entertainment programming that displays pro-American propaganda.  My research is not biased for or against, I'm just looking at examples.  I am having one heck of a time finding others who are writing on this topic.  You know I love esoteric topics.  With the Semantic Web, the artificial intelligence will overlay, for example, hundreds of blog and magazine topics written in the past 365 days.  Yes, I can search Google Blogs, plodding through day after day, searching for my topic.  I sure could use a robot to help me.  There will be many used for the Semantic Web, and I hope RADAR is a huge success.

Nova Spivack's Blog called, Minding The Planet, has links to the N.Y. Times article. Check it out.

Barb from WOXY now on The Current

Great news music lovers.  Barb from WOXY has landed at The Current, and is now living in the Cities.  She has been on the air three weeks - I've been listening to Barb for five years, since I've had broadband access.  Alas, WOXY is no more, but people,  we have Barb !!!   9 a.m. to noon

http://minnesota.publicradio.org     The Current     Modern Rock and More !
    *for all you out of towners

Barb Abney
Music Host - The Current
Minnesota Public Radio
babney@mpr.org

Barb Abney comes to The Current from Cincinnati's WOXY.com, one of the premiere alternative stations in the country. During the past 12 years, Abney has served as a daily on-air host, where she picked all her own music and interviewed countless bands, including We Are Scientists, Radio 4 and Concrete Blonde. She brings a wealth of music knowledge and a knack for community building to The Current family.

Paglia on Madonna, Fun on MySpace.com

Paglia on  Madonna.... Just go read yourself.  As far as I'm concerned, neither can ever do wrong.   Thanks Salon.

   

Dancing As Fast As She Can  by Camille Paglia

   

"Madonna cannibalizes herself in a misguided attempt to appeal to today's youth. Who is she becoming? The crazed Joan Crawford of "Torch Song"? The pathetic Bette Davis in "What Ever Happened to Baby Jane"? Charo?
Editor's note: Salon welcomes back founding contributor Camille Paglia, professor of humanities and media studies at the University of the Arts in Philadelphia. Paglia was a columnist at Salon for six years before taking a break to complete "Break Blow Burn" which was published earlier this year and immediately became her fourth bestseller."

Fun on MySpace.com  This project has been the most engaging one of Grad school - dare I say, fun.  Look at my home page.  I already have twelve friends.   I've initiated an interesting discussion with a "stranger" that I will write about in my paper. Now that I've been working on MySpace for a couple weeks, it seems I've figured my way around.  The only glaring weakness is inability to search the forums and groups.  I can see why, because when I counted, there were almost a million and a half groups.  It is astounding to watch the service grow, they are adding almost a million users a week.

Innovate - Journal of Online Education  this resource posted a new issue this week Dec. 2005-Jan. 2006.  There is an article directly related to my project -

Taking a Journey with Today's Digital Kids: An Interview with Deneen Frazier Bowen by James L. Morrison and Deneen Frazier Bowen

If you are one of my academic friends reading this, be sure to bookmark and sign up on their page, you'll get emails when they have a new journal. 

The Virtual Handshake Blog is one I found researching MySpace this week.  They have an article on marketing yourself through the service.  It's a good blog for anyone using the internet for business.

Finally, Pingoat. When one ping is just not enough. I've been ping-ing technorati, but this service has a group of sites that it will ping for me.  This means when I make a post, I notify or "ping" a number of services that keep track of weblogs. 

 

       

Neopets, Tyra, and Mike's Articles

I filled myself with pumpkin pie and MySpace this week.  The new Wired arrived with even more info about Millennials (even Homelanders!)  in a Mode 4 environment - Neopets.com. The online article posts in December - 
            The Neopets Addiction by David Kushner

  "Every day after school, 11 year old Tyler Gagen hurries home down the country roads of Hastings, MN, to play with Buddy.  "He like hot dogs and cake," Tyler says of his pet.  "I haven't brought him to the grooming parlor yet, but I will.  He gets the royal treatment.  Tyler also cares for a half siamese tomcat, Arctic, and two cocker spaniels, Packer and Patriot.  Tyler likes Buddy but says he appreciates the dogs and cat a little more because "you can actually feel them and stuff."  The articles continues to describe how Tyler personalizes his pets and wins points to shop for "Vonroll toys and Cornupepper soup to keep Buddy happy and healthy."  Tyler learned about Neopets "from a girl named Anna down the street" and  found "Neopets is fun."

     " A generation agrees.  Neopets has a staggering 25 million members worldwide.  It has been translated into 10 languages and gets more than 2.2 pageviews per month.  These dedicated Neopians spend an average of 6 hours and 15 minutes per month on the site.  That makes Neopets the second-stickiest site on the Internet - ahead of Yahoo! MSN, AOL, AND eBay, ... What's more, its demographics are the stuff of marketers' dreams. four out of five Neopians are under age 18 and two out of five are under 13." 

  The article continues to explain the immersive advertising environment of the site, it's sale to Viacom for $160 million and the business model of this very addictive website, in which  probably right now, my eleven year old niece is creating her virtual life.

Tyra, Tyra, Tyra.  You didn't think I was going to post a blog without Tyra, did you?  Friday's show was great, she did a top model search in an hour show, an ended up with a six foot blonde winner.  There is no way my comments could ever match the wit of Four Four, so just go and read yourself.
Census - I've been double checking Census info for my papers, this website gives 2004 age Census information, convenientally grouped by Generational breakdowns. 

Homelanders  under 5,  20 million

Millennials  5 – 24,  82,450,000

Gen X  25-44,  84,140,000

Boomers  45-64.  70,697,000

Silents 65-85,  36,293,000

G.I.,    85+   4,860,000

Okay, I like numbers, what can I say.
Other stuff,  for friends and relatives,  Mike's magazine articles are here and here, from the magazine 24x7 for Technical Service and Support Professionals in Health Care.  Now you can read what Mike does.  I'm so proud of his accomplishments this year!

For academic friends, here is the book mentioned in the NYTimes article on Innovation, most of it is right here on line:  Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future.  It's by the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Science,
Engineering, and Public Policy.

Well, I better put this cold stuffing down, until later,  janet

MySpace.com and Robyne Robinson Rox

My next paper is an analysis of Millies using MySpace.com within the context of Mode 3 and Mode 4 learning.  I know this sounds like code words that they teach in Graduate school, but this is what it means.
Mode 3 learning is teaching yourself, and Mode 4 learning is using that self learning in an environment where everyone is doing this.  In Myspace.com,  38 million (as of this writing) Millennials are creating musically and ever other way within  networks of literally millions of others.
Here is my MySpace.com page, so you can see what it looks like. I'm still working on the here's and there's, but generally it's easy to use.  If you look at some of my friends, you can see how the Millie's love to customize with bright colors. Wired magazine ran the article that started my interest in writing this paper.

The Hit Factory   Who needs major labels, marketing, or airplay? A social networking site is getting more hits than Google -- and turning invisible bands into mini entertainment networks. How MySpace became the MTV for the Net generation.  By Jeff Howe

Other stuff:  Did you know local Mega Star Robyne Robinson has a Jewelry Line?  rox minneapolis
Robyne makes beautiful natural stone and sterling bracelets and earrings.   How did I find this out?  From  Tyra !  She gave it a good plug at the end of the show yesterday. The designs are available near Ridgedale and at the Walker gift shop, and some other places, including NYC. 

I finally ordered the Sunday NYTimes, with its ready supply of articles for graduate students.  We have easy access to archives, so I am attaching copies for my Firefly friends, but for the blogosphere, we are pretty cut off from NYTimes Opinion and archives without paying for the new service.  So I'll just summarize the Brook's article:

Psst! 'Human Capital'  By DAVID BROOKS 
Help! I'm turning into the ''plastics'' guy from ''The Graduate.'' I'm pulling people aside at parties and whispering that if they want to understand the future, it's just two words: ''Human Capital.''

If we want to keep up with the Chinese and the Indians, we've got to develop our Human Capital. If we want to remain a just, fluid society: Human Capital. If we want to head off underclass riots: Human Capital.   .......

We now spend more per capita on education than just about any other country on earth, and the results are mediocre. No Child Left Behind treats students as skill-acquiring cogs in an economic wheel, and the results have been disappointing. We pour money into Title 1 and Head Start, but the long-term gains are insignificant.

These programs are not designed for the way people really are. The only things that work are local, human-to-human immersions that transform the students down to their very beings. Extraordinary schools, which create intense cultures of achievement, work. Extraordinary teachers, who inspire students to transform their lives, work. The programs that work touch all the components of human capital.

There's a great future in Human Capital, buddy. Enough said.

 

The other article was in Sunday Business, still online for a while about inventor James E. West who says Americans need to be more devoted to investing in innovation.

Not Invented Here By TIMOTHY L. O'BRIEN 

Inventors have always held a special place in American history and business lore, embodying innovation and economic progress in a country that has long prized individual creativity and the power of great ideas. In recent decades, tinkerers and researchers have given society microchips, personal computers, the Internet, balloon catheters, bar codes, fiber optics, e-mail systems, hearing aids, air bags and automated teller machines, among a bevy of other devices.

Mr. West stands firmly in this tradition -- a tradition that he said may soon be upended. He fears that corporate and public nurturing of inventors and scientific research is faltering and that America will pay a serious economic and intellectual penalty for this lapse.

For the Firefly cohort - Has everyone seen Into the Blogosphere? It presents serious academic papers on Blogs, prepared right here at the University of Minnesota.

Final note - Here is the Liberal Skills Firefly blog for more information on the application of Learning Modes.