BabyBoomerBlog

Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny

I am writing today about the method of forecasting that has guided my thinking since I discovered it in 2004.  This method is called Generational Dynamics developed by
John J. Xenakis on his premier Website and Web Blog, Generational Dynamics.

Generational Dynamics is based on Generation Theory, developed by authors William Strauss and Neil Howe, in their ambitious work, The Fourth Turning (1997). They look at 400 years of Anglo-American history against a template of four twenty-year generational groups, The Artist, Hero, Nomad, and Prophet,  in four twenty-year cycles of  Eras, the length of a human lifespan.  The Eras are Crisis, Austerity, Awakening, and Unraveling. Each generation has characteristics and themes that propel them diagonally through their place in history, along with their generational cohorts. In the chart below, the Artists are the Homelanders, age 8 and younger, the Heroes are the Millennials, ages 9 to 28, the Nomads are Gen X, ages 29 to 46, and the Boomers, ages 47 - 65 are the current Prophets.  Oldsters would be on the previous chart, the Artists of the last cycle are the Silent Generation, and the few remaining oldster Heroes are from the Greatest Generation, who fought in WW II. 

Xenakis took Generational Theory and created Generational Dynamics as a methodology for forecasting history.  His blog looks at news events that depend on generational changes in attitudes and beliefs of large masses of people.

     What is Generational Dynamics?

     "Generational Dynamics is based on a simple idea: That societies and nations make mistakes and then learn lessons from those mistakes. But generations grow older, retire and die, and are replaced by new generations who are too young to remember those mistakes and those lessons. When that happens, the mistakes are repeated.

     This is important today, because one of those mistakes is to have a major war. There are certain wars called "Crisis Wars" that are so violent that they actually put the nation's survival, or at least the nation's way of life, in danger. America's last crisis war was World War II, and the previous one was the Civil War. (World War I was never a crisis war for America.)

     Generational Dynamics is very important at this time in America's history because we've entered a new "Crisis period." Ten years ago, all the nation's senior government, business and educational leaders and managers were from the generation that grew up during World War II, and experienced the trauma of seeing homelessness, starvation and death all around them, while they lived in fear of German and Japanese bombers. That risk-aversive generation dealt with problems using compromise and containment.

       Today, those risk-aversive leaders are gone, retired or dead. Today's leaders are from the "Baby Boomer generation," born after World War II with no personal memory of that war. The people in this generation are not risk-aversive. The people in this generation are more likely to be risk-seeking, arrogant, hubristic, narcissistic, and self-assured. That's why America's attitudes have changed so much in the last ten years.

        Once you understand Generational Dynamics, then you'll understand a very great deal about how the world works, and about America's future for the next thirty years."

     The Generational Dynamics Website and Blog

   On the Website, Xenakis has an information packed Home Page and Weblog.  Also, there are links to his two books.  His first, Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny, is available for purchase. His second, Generational Dynamics for Historians,  is online for free.

The online book explains the theory in detail, including the Interdisciplinary nature of Generational Dynamics.  Chaos Theory and advanced mathematical theories compose the background, along with the influence of Strauss and Howe.

Xenakis explains his motivation:

       "Since 2002, we've been using Generational Analysis to make specific, hard predictions about worldwide events, politics, culture, technology, economics and international finance, and with much better accuracy than private analyst firms. If you're paying big money for high-priced newsletters from private analyst firms, and all you're getting is vague "that might be a problem" forecasts, then check this website regularly to get really useful, accurate forecasts -- FOR FREE.

      We believe that this site is providing a public service by providing information about America's future which is not available anywhere else, and cannot be learned by any methodology other than Generational Dynamics."

Xenakis updates his weblog frequently, with clear explanations for the general reader.

I highly recommend this site for anyone interested in forecasting.

Art Harkins at World Future Society: Youth Futures

Art Harkins, George Kubick and John Moravec to Present July 31

at World Future Society Conference

This year, the World Future Society is having their annual convention in Minneapolis, so I signed up for this exciting event. 

My Advisor and Professor Dr. Art Harkins is presenting with George Kubick and John Moravec on July 31 at 9:00 a.m.  The event is at the Hilton

It should be an amazing conference.  If anyone who is reading this is a student, contact me about checking on enrollment and a scholarship.

This is the description of their Presentation in the Program Booklet.

"Youth Futures: Projecting the roles of Disruptive Technologies, Anticipatory Knowledge, and Continuous Innovation"

     This session highlights the Global Youth Policy and Leadership Program at the University of Minnesota where faculty and students of all ages (Kindergarten through graduate school) crafted scenarios, composed alternative futures, and explored other vaious futures methodologies. In this sesion, particular emplasis will be placed on the construction of future histories that can be used as alternative visions and maps to help youth of different backgrounds and experiences visualize and discuss the future.  This session consists of ten short postions papers, each followed by panelist responses and audience participation.

Arthur Harkins

professor, University of Minnesota

Co-founder, Horizon Forum

Co-Principal, Global Leapfrog Insititue,

Minneapolis, Mn

George Kubik, President, Minnesota Futurists,

former federal strategic futurist and assistant regional director for strategic planning

Minneapolis

John Moravec, doctoral candidate

University of Minnesota

coordinationer, Urban Leadership Academy,

Co-founders, Horizon Forum

Co-principal. Global Leapfrog Institute\  Minneapolis, MN

Happy Passover 2007

In other news, Happy Passover, and Happy Birthday to Mom, Leona Cohen , age 91 yesterday.

World Future Society

Why Chicks Don't Dig the Singularity

Why Chicks Don't Dig the Singularity

The Acceleration Studies Foundation has Salons that are held in cool places like San Fransciso with great speakers. The most recent Salon had a speaker with the wonderful name of Joe Quirk, who is an evolutionary psychological comic.  His recent book is called "Sperm are from Men, Eggs are from Women, the Real Reason Men and Women are Different."  You can take a look at Joe's website, and click on the information about the book to get a feel for the contents.  His basic thesis is that evolution determines the reasons that men and women have so much trouble connection in our advanced technological society. Men are hardwired to go around spreading their sperm so their DNA survives, and women need men to stick around to make sure their babies survive.

Before the Salon, Joe was interviewed by RU Sirius, and the salient points were published on the Webzine,  10 Zen Monkeys.  If you aren't familiar with RU Sirius, he is an American writer, musician, and cyberculture icon.  He is a show host for two ongoing weekly podcasts, The RU Sirius Show and NeoFiles.  He launched the Webzine, 10 Zen Moneys in September 2006. Thanks to wikipedia for the information.  (Aside, how did I ever survive before Wikipedia and Google?)

Quirk points out that woman are not very interested in all this Futurist stuff, especially the Singularity.  Dear readers, if you have no idea what I am talking about, look here. But the question is – Why doesn't the idea of The Singularity appeal to women?

JQ is Joe Quick and RU is RU Sirius, This is transcribed from a Podcast.

"JQ: All these ideas are founded on some assumptions about human nature. And I think some of the assumptions about human nature that we make in the futurist community are wrong. For instance, I’ve noticed chicks don’t dig the singularity. For instance, I went to a recent Accelerated Change conference, and I actually counted up the people, and I found that less than a fifth of the presenters were women, and less than a sixth of the attendees were women.

RU:That sounds like a high count of women compared to some geek stuff that I’ve been to!

JQ:Yeah, when there’s actual machinery, it’s like 1% women. But I knew a lot of the women who were there, and they were there because it was their guy’s primary interest. So Ray Kurzweil got up there and Moira Gunn was interviewing him, and everybody got to submit a question. And Moira would pick her three favorite questions. So there were all these technical questions about how will the singularity do this, how will the singularity do that. And my question was, “How will the Singularity get laid… err help me get laid?” So she picked my question as an extra one as a way of dismissing it. She said, “Somebody put a joke question in here, and can you believe that there are people here who would write something like this? It’s ‘how will the Singularity help me get laid?’” And then she throws it aside and tries to move on to another question. But Kurzweil says, “Hang on. Hang on. I want to answer that.” And then he goes into this long technical description…

JEFF DIEHL: …and then he got out his slide rule, and straightened out his bow tie. [laughter]

JQ: Exactly! It was stuff like, “You can wear body suits.” He was talking about tactile things and about how people can caress each other from far away. And it was so funny. It’s too bad this wasn’t filmed, because Moira Gunn’s face was getting more and more skeptical, the more he kept talking. She kept saying things like, “Well, what about intimacy? You know, what about actual interacting with a real human being?” And Kurzweil wasn’t picking up on what she was talking about. You could tell he enjoys the subject, but he gave a long-winded technical explanation for how to get off. And she was talking about sex as a medium for connecting to another person’s soul. So right there, you’re seeing this divergence between men’s priorities and women’s priorities. My wife doesn’t care about the Singularity. When I talk about it, it doesn’t resonate for her. It doesn’t sound exciting to be able to put a machine inside your brain or something like that.

JD: What about the real prospect of an indefinite life span? I think that appeals to women!

JQ: I think it does, but I don’t know anyone outside the futurist community…

RU: You look young for a much longer period of time. Women are early adopters of youth technology in terms of looks.

JQ: My wife is actually in the business of making women young and beautiful. She’s what’s called an aesthetician. She makes people beautiful. So if I could convince her that people can live forever and be young as long as they want, she might be into it. But my explanation ends up being sort of technical and attenuated. There are so many other things you need to know that it tends to become like religion –- the rapture for geeks.

JD: There’s not a big female fan base for science fiction, right?

JQ: Right. So guy geeks are always talking about how you can connect to more people and form more networks with people you never met. And my research tells me women’s brains are just more interested in face reading and voice reading and reading all the messages you get beneath the words. Guys tend to concentrate more on the abstract ideas behind the words. So email is unfulfilling for most women. They want to get together at lunch with their friends and make eye contact and stand way too close to each other."

So I guess, dear reader, that I fall somewhere in between.  For those that know me, I am quite the girly girl. Yet, I hide my gender with an ambiguous screen name and I  don't have many female friends.  Actually, I think that's a Generational thing – I love the inclusive Millies, it's the hyper-critical Xer's and boring Boomers that don't like me.  My children would  cring when they recall that I once dragged them to a Trekkie Convention. And I love, love, love email..

I approach the Singularity with great enthusiasm, especially the coming medical breakthoughs.  As soon as those body replacement parts are ready, sign me up!  I would like to participate in more geeky gatherings, and I'm actually attending the World Future Society convention in Minneapolis this summer. So Girl Geeks unite!  The Singularity will soon be here.

 

Prophecy 2007 from a REAL Magician

Prophecy 2007 From a Real Magician

How, might you ask, would I have prophecy information from a Real Magician?  Well, I'm not telling, except that I am exceptionally cool, and I asked.

This is what he said:

"China's economy will continue to grow between 8 and 10 per cent
annually.  Kim Jong Li of N.  Korea will die since he is already pretty
sick. Mahmoud Amadinejad will leave office in the next year one way or
another and the Ayatolah will also die since he too is rather sick.  Gold
will rise above 640 per ounce and copper will rise to $3.65 per unit.
Weather and climate will continue to perform erratically.  Well, that is
all I can forsee for now.  The planet earth is in its greatest golden age
and DNA has been waiting two and a half billion years for an
"intelligent" species to figure out and finally be in a position to
settle on other planets which will vastly increase the DNA molecule's
chance of survival (after nearly being destroyed a few times due to
asteriods and other interesting events).  Fusion reactors will not be made
effective since it will take another ten or twenty years for a cheap
alternative to oil to develop."

Here is a little more, from some of his previous work,

"We have a one and a half per cent slow down in the North Atlantic current this year resulting in a two per cent increase in the possibility of an ice age happening in the next fifty years. Estimated dead from the on set of an ice age is still about one half of the world’s population.

 The possibility of an unseen asteroid on a close orbit to the sun wiping out seventy per cent of all life on earth remains at a low one half of one per cent over the next five hundred years.   

 The possibility of a level five air born virus occurring in the next fifty years is 98.7%, a virtual certainty.  Odds of a nuclear strike on a major city around the world in the next year stands at a steady 2.96%.    

 The chance of running out of petroleum in the next one hundred years is zero thanks to shale deposits in Canada and Russia. 

 The possibility of the end of the human species due to the onset of AI or nanotechnology remains stable at a low 4% over the next sixty-five years.  And finally the possibility of Homo sapiens being erased altogether due to genetic engineering or engineered mutations over the next century, for those of you who plan to celebrate New Years Eve 2100, is a solid 14%. 

 I just want to congratulate everyone on this extraordinarily long and unusually warm inter glacial period we have been having. Without it, we certainly wouldn’t have attained to industrial civilization.  Why it is the first time in the history of the earth that an intelligent species has had the chance to insure its own survival by placing a colony on another planet.  The fact is that you—the human race-- have just won the cosmic lottery.  I hope you cash in on this opportunity before your lottery ticket expires.  Way to go folks and good luck to you."

All information is copyright 2006 by William Mistele

If you don't  follow Magick, and prefer Generational Dynamics, you should bookmark John Xenakis' site for up to date Forecasting:

   " Generational Dynamics is a historical methodology that analyzes historical events through the flow of generations, and uses the analysis to forecast future events by comparing today's generational attitudes to those of the past.
This site provides analysis and forecasts of international news, politics, culture and finance. We apply the Generational Dynamics methodology ruthlessly, without any biases: We take no sides in any political battles or in any international conflicts, and we don't use any religious interpretations.  If we have any bias at all, it's that we're American."

Happy New Year 2007 to everyone.

S                                     Stssss   sSStete 

Happy Hanukah, 2006 Predictions from The World Future Society

from Outlook 2006:     

      

1. Nanotechnology will be used for everything from       monitoring the health of soldiers in the battlefield to transforming waste into edible       material. Medical therapies based on nanotechnology will reach clinical use       before 2025. Ultra-tiny machines will monitor internal processes, remove cholesterol       plaques from arteries, and destroy cancer cells before they form tumors.

      

2. U.S. public education will face an uphill battle for       survival. According to the National Education Association, the amount of money       required to repair ailing school facilities in the United States, build new facilities       where they are needed, and outfit schools with modern technology is approaching $322       billion, or ten times the amount states are currently spending on schools.

      

3. Wind and tidal power will grow considerably in the       next five years. Researchers have projected 5,800 megawatts of offshore renewable       capacity will be installed between 2004 and 2008, of which 99% will be in the form of       offshore wind farms. Worldwide, the offshore wind market will grow to $3 billion a year by       2008.

      

4. More doctors and hospitals will use wireless       technologies such as wearable computers and mattresses embedded with sensors to help care       for patients. This technology will allow for more constant and reliable       monitoring of patients’ vital signs. As a result, busy nurses will be freed from       having to constantly ensure that patients are connected to EKGs. The technology has       already been used in Finland, not only in hospitals, but also in what are being called       "smart jail-cells."

      

5. Digital electronic assistant programs will       surf the Net on our behalf and enable us to amass entire digital libraries on a given       subject by doing nothing more than setting a few key search guidelines.

      

6. More people will be affected by Alzheimer’s       disease. As life spans increase, a growing elderly population is surviving into       the years most prone to Alzheimer’s. In developed countries, about 2% of the       population already suffers from this illness. By 2054, the number of Alzheimer’s       patients globally could grow by a factor of three. The coming "age-wave" will       also put stress on a number of public institutions not equipped to deal with large elderly       populations.

      

7. Death by global warming. Climate changes       alone could cause a 4.5% increase in the number of summer ozone-related deaths in the New       York metropolitan area by 2050. When population growth and projected growth in greenhouse       gases are factored in, the ozone death toll could climb by 60%.

      

Also, urban heat waves will get hotter and last longer. According to a       computer model developed by the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, large urban       centers like Chicago and Paris will experience an average of 2.8 heat-waves a year, up       from 1.66 heat waves currently, representing an increase of 25%. Heat waves will last, on       average, nine days longer.

      

8. Science in Latin America will rise considerably. Citations       of science and engineering research by Latin Americans has increased nearly 200% since       1988, significantly outpacing authors in other developing regions of the world. The surge       of science scholarship in the region is considered an indicator of nations’ growing       commitment to investing in science and engineering as a vehicle for development.

      

9. Look out for a job boom in solar industries, with some       42,000 new U.S. jobs by 2015. In the next decade, the U.S. solar industry could       generate more than $34 billion in new manufacturing investments. Solar power could       displace 6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas by 2025, saving U.S. consumers approximately       $64 billion.

      

10. The open-source phenomenon will transform employment as       radically as blogging has changed the fields of media and journalism.