I am writing today about the method of
forecasting that has guided my thinking since I discovered it in
2004. This method is called Generational Dynamics developed by
John J. Xenakis on
his premier Website and Web
Blog, Generational Dynamics.
Generational Dynamics is based on
Generation Theory, developed by authors William Strauss and Neil
Howe, in their ambitious work, The Fourth Turning (1997). They
look at 400 years of Anglo-American history against a template of
four twenty-year generational groups, The Artist, Hero, Nomad, and
Prophet, in four twenty-year cycles of Eras, the length of a human
lifespan. The Eras are Crisis, Austerity, Awakening, and Unraveling.
Each generation has characteristics and themes that propel them
diagonally through their place in history, along with their
generational cohorts. In the chart below, the Artists are the Homelanders, age 8 and younger, the Heroes are the Millennials, ages 9 to 28, the Nomads are Gen X, ages 29 to 46, and the Boomers, ages 47 - 65 are the current Prophets. Oldsters would be on the previous chart, the Artists of the last cycle are the Silent Generation, and the few remaining oldster Heroes are from the Greatest Generation, who fought in WW II.
Xenakis took Generational Theory and
created Generational Dynamics as a methodology for forecasting
history. His blog looks at news events that depend on generational
changes in attitudes and beliefs of large masses of people.
What
is Generational Dynamics?
"Generational Dynamics is based on a simple idea: That
societies and nations make mistakes and then learn lessons from those
mistakes. But generations grow older, retire and die, and are
replaced by new generations who are too young to remember those
mistakes and those lessons. When that happens, the mistakes are
repeated.
This is important today, because one of those mistakes is to
have a major war. There are certain wars called "Crisis Wars"
that are so violent that they actually put the nation's survival, or
at least the nation's way of life, in danger. America's last crisis
war was World War II, and the previous one was the Civil War. (World
War I was never a crisis war for America.)
Generational Dynamics is very important at this time in
America's history because we've entered a new "Crisis period."
Ten years ago, all the nation's senior government, business and
educational leaders and managers were from the generation that grew
up during World War II, and experienced the trauma of seeing
homelessness, starvation and death all around them, while they lived
in fear of German and Japanese bombers. That risk-aversive generation
dealt with problems using compromise and containment.
Today, those risk-aversive leaders are gone, retired or
dead. Today's leaders are from the "Baby Boomer generation,"
born after World War II with no personal memory of that war. The
people in this generation are not risk-aversive. The people in this
generation are more likely to be risk-seeking, arrogant, hubristic,
narcissistic, and self-assured. That's why America's attitudes have
changed so much in the last ten years.
Once you understand Generational Dynamics, then you'll
understand a very great deal about how the world works, and about
America's future for the next thirty years."
The Generational Dynamics Website and Blog
On the Website, Xenakis has an information packed Home Page and
Weblog. Also, there are links to his two books. His first,
Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny, is
available for purchase. His second, Generational Dynamics for
Historians, is online for free.
The online book explains the theory in detail, including the
Interdisciplinary nature of Generational Dynamics. Chaos Theory and
advanced mathematical theories compose the background, along with the
influence of Strauss and Howe.
Xenakis explains his motivation:
"Since 2002, we've been using Generational Analysis to
make specific, hard predictions about worldwide events, politics,
culture, technology, economics and international finance, and with
much better accuracy than private analyst firms. If you're paying big
money for high-priced newsletters from private analyst firms, and all
you're getting is vague "that might be a problem"
forecasts, then check this website regularly to get really useful,
accurate forecasts -- FOR FREE.
We believe that this site is providing a public service by
providing information about America's future which is not available
anywhere else, and cannot be learned by any methodology other than
Generational Dynamics."
Xenakis updates
his weblog frequently, with clear explanations for the general
reader.
I highly recommend
this site for anyone interested in forecasting.
